Our Insights

 Keeping our audience informed with market commentaries and thought leadership pieces on key financial issues.


Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

A Retirement Plan Option for Highly-Compensated Executives

Top Hat plans are designed for highly-compensated executives, giving them the opportunity to accumulate enough savings to replace a significant portion of their pre-retirement income.

Current tax law allows executives to defer up to 100% of their compensation without paying income tax on that money until it is withdrawn, generally in retirement. Much like money in a 401(k) plan, the assets can benefit from tax-free growth

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Making 401(k) Plans Work for Your Business and Your Employees

The recently passed SECURE 2.0 Act now provides businesses with thousands of dollars in new tax credits for setting up 401(k) plans, and they can also claim $1,000 tax credit per employee for employer matches.

Learn more about all of the new tax credits available for 401(k) plans, and other ways businesses can use 401(k)s to help employees and the business thrive.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Third Quarter 2023 Review

The U.S. economy continued to grow in the first half of 2023, despite forecasts indicating otherwise. The bright spot looking forward is that monetary policy is already tight, which we think signals that the peak in the interest rate cycle is likely very close – which is good for risk assets looking ahead.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Second Quarter 2023 Review

With a clearer picture emerging of what exactly took place in the regional banking sector, we now view the bank stress as more of a crisis of mismanagement than a symptom of systemic risk lurking throughout the banking sector. As Jamie Dimon wrote in his annual shareholder letter, “many of the risks were hiding in plain sight.”

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

An Update on U.S. Banks

Most bank failures historically have been caused by credit risk issues, but SIVB and SBNY were unique cases where mismanagement of interest rate risk—combined with a run on deposits—deemed both banks insolvent in just a matter of days. As we explain in this post, these two banks were largely in a league of their own in terms of their exposure to risk, which is one of the reasons we do not think financial contagion is likely.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

First Quarter 2023 Review

2022 was a year beset by challenges, led by the Russia-Ukraine war, global supply chain disruptions, high inflation, rising interest rates across much of the developed world, and pronounced economic weakness in Europe and China.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Fourth Quarter 2022 Review

The third quarter repeated a familiar pattern we’ve seen in 2022, where every time the markets have tried to price-in a peak in the interest rate cycle, some combination of strong labor market data, stubbornly high inflation, and central bank policy has pulled it back.

Read More
Thought Leadership, Financial Education Paul Thompson, Jr. Thought Leadership, Financial Education Paul Thompson, Jr.

What You Need to Know About College Savings Plans

The cost of attending a four-year college in the United States is high, but the financial benefit of a bachelor’s degree arguably outweighs the cost. Fortunately, families have several options to prepare for the financial cost of higher education, and many of them offer tax breaks and benefits that are worth taking advantage of.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Third Quarter 2022 Review

Downside volatility has been pronounced. The focus now, in our view, should be ensuring participation in the stock market’s recovery once it takes hold, which will assuredly be before economic data confirms the U.S. economy is in good shape.

Read More
Market Updates Paul Thompson, Jr. Market Updates Paul Thompson, Jr.

Staying Calm Amidst Market Volatility

The stock market’s ups-and-downs can be unsettling, and we empathize with the difficulties in keeping a steady hand—especially when the economy and markets feel as though they’re in disarray. But we also believe now is a time to remain patient, and to remember that short-term volatility is the price all investors pay for attractive long-term returns.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Second Quarter 2022 Review

Investors are weighing a laundry list of unknowns in the current environment—how quickly the Fed will raise rates, whether and when inflation will moderate, how long Russia’s war will continue, whether the war escalates and turns global, and whether the pandemic is truly over. Our base assumption is that equity market volatility will continue as these questions continue to weigh on sentiment.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

First Quarter 2022 Review

2021 was quite an unusual year for the world, but not necessarily for the capital markets. U.S. stocks strongly outperformed foreign shares, with every sector in the S&P 500 finishing up +15% or more. We do not believe all areas of the market will do well in 2022, however. Rising rates are likely to result in multiple compression in certain areas of the market.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Fourth Quarter 2021 Review

The highly anticipated ‘post-pandemic economic boom’ took a pause in Q3, as yet another Covid-19 surge led consumers to retrench in July and August.

The upshot for investors, however, is that macroeconomic headwinds all appear to be temporary, and none appear significant enough to derail the growth trajectory of the U.S. for the balance of 2021.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Third Quarter 2021 Review

The U.S. economy is clearly on strong footing. Strong spending, accelerating demand, and tight inventories are likely to keep inflation as a headline risk, and continued strength in the jobs market and wage pressures may motivate the Federal Reserve to shift into monetary tightening mode sooner than later—at first by tapering bond purchases, and eventually by raising interest rates.

Read More
Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr. Quarterly Reviews Paul Thompson, Jr.

Second Quarter 2021 Review

U.S. stocks marched higher in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 pushing through 17 new highs and reaching 4,000 for the first time. “Risk-on” sentiment is being driven by improving economic data, a sense that the pandemic is nearing its end in the US, and what is perhaps the greatest fiscal stimulus experiment in the country’s history.

Read More